
# generate table 1

library(rio) # to load data
library(tidyverse) # to reshape data
library(lmtest) # to cluster standard errors
library(sandwich) # to cluster standard errors
library(texreg) # to generate tables

# set your working directory
setwd("~/replication_files")

monthly_data <- import("data/monthly_data.csv")

# table 1

# model 1
probit1 <- glm(sovereign_issued_1yr ~
                 resource_rents_perc_lag +
                 log_oil_production_lag +
                 terms_of_trade_lag +
                 discovery_lag +
                 I(iso3c) +
                 time,
               data = monthly_data,
               family = binomial(link = "probit"))

probit1_r <- probit1 %>%
  coeftest(vcovHC(probit1, type = 'HC0', cluster = c('iso3c','Summary')))

# model 2
probit2 <- glm(sovereign_issued_1yr ~
                 resource_rents_perc_lag +
                 log_oil_production_lag +
                 terms_of_trade_lag +
                 discovery_lag +
                 minister_is_econ_technocrat_usa +
                 minister_turnover_5yrs +
                 debt_crisis_experience +
                 election_month + left_exec +
                 fiscal_council + 
                 polcon + 
                 I(iso3c) +
                 time,
               data = monthly_data,
               family = binomial(link = "probit"))

probit2_r <- probit2 %>%
  coeftest(vcovHC(probit2, type = 'HC0', cluster = c('iso3c','Summary')))

# model 3
probit3 <- glm(sovereign_issued_1yr ~
                 resource_rents_perc_lag +
                 log_oil_production_lag +
                 terms_of_trade_lag +
                 discovery_lag +
                 imf_agreement +
                 fiscal_balance_lag + 
                 tax_perc_gdp_cepal_lag +
                 log_core_inflation_lag +
                 gdp_pc_cepal_lag +
                 gdp_growth_cepal_lag +
                 ka_open_lag +
                 log_reserves_lag +
                 treasury_rate_lag +
                 I(iso3c) +
                 time,
               data = monthly_data,
               family = binomial(link = "probit"))

probit3_r <- probit3 %>%
  coeftest(vcovHC(probit3, type = 'HC0', cluster = c('iso3c','Summary')))

# model 4
probit4 <- glm(sovereign_issued_1yr ~
                 resource_rents_perc_lag +
                 log_oil_production_lag +
                 terms_of_trade_lag +
                 discovery_lag +
                 minister_is_econ_technocrat_usa +
                 minister_turnover_5yrs +
                 debt_crisis_experience +
                 election_month + left_exec +
                 fiscal_council + 
                 polcon + 
                 imf_agreement +
                 fiscal_balance_lag + 
                 tax_perc_gdp_cepal_lag +
                 log_core_inflation_lag +
                 gdp_pc_cepal_lag +
                 gdp_growth_cepal_lag +
                 ka_open_lag +
                 log_reserves_lag +
                 treasury_rate_lag +
                 I(iso3c) +
                 time,
               data = monthly_data,
               family = binomial(link = "probit"))

probit4_r <- probit4 %>%
  coeftest(vcovHC(probit4, type = 'HC0', cluster = c('iso3c','Summary')))

# generate table
texreg(l = list(probit1_r,probit2_r,probit3_r,probit4_r), stars = c(0.01, 0.05, 0.1),
       custom.coef.map = list("resource_rents_perc_lag" = "Resource Rents, % of GDP $_{t-1}$",
                              "log_oil_production_lag" = "Ln Oil and Gas Production $_{t-1}$",
                              "terms_of_trade_lag" = "Commodity Price Index $_{t-1}$",
                              "discovery_lag" = "Field Discovery $_{t-1}$",
                              "minister_is_econ_technocrat_usa" = "Mainstream Minister = 1",
                              "minister_turnover_5yrs" = "Minister Turnover (5 Years)",
                              "debt_crisis_experience" = "Debt Crisis Experience = 1",
                              "election_month" = "Election Month = 1",
                              "left_exec" = "Left Executive = 1",
                              "cb_independence" = "Central Bank Independence",
                              "fiscal_council" = "Fiscal Council = 1",
                              "polcon" = "Political Constraints",
                              "imf_agreement" = "IMF Agreement = 1",
                              "fiscal_balance_lag" = "Fiscal Balance, % of GDP $_{t-1}$",
                              "tax_perc_gdp_cepal_lag" = "Tax Revenue, % of GDP $_{t-1}$",
                              "log_core_inflation_lag" = "Ln Core Inflation $_{t-1}$",
                              "gdp_pc_cepal_lag" = "GDP Per Capita $_{t-1}$",
                              "gdp_growth_cepal_lag" = "GDP Growth, % $_{t-1}$",
                              "ka_open_lag" = "Capital Openness $_{t-1}$",
                              "log_reserves_lag" = "Ln International Reserves $_{t-1}$",
                              "treasury_rate_lag" = "US Treasury Rate, % $_{t-1}$"),
       fontsize = "footnotesize", digits = 3)

# retrieve fit stats
texreg(l = list(probit1,probit2,probit3,probit4), stars = c(0.01, 0.05, 0.1))
